Being Digital

Yesterday I read an article about the state of the publishing industry and Amazon's ambitions in that area. The writer made some interesting points about how Amazon's land-grab in the publishing arena is driving up the money being paid to writers and thus disrupting the economics of the whole business, but the part that most caught my attention was the assessment of an unnamed publishing industry "insider" that, "Long-term there’s no future in printed books. They’ll be like vinyl: pricey and for collectors only. 95% of people will read digitally."

On the face of it, the comparison between vinyl and printed books seems sensible, but it's really just an indicator that this "insider" has the same shortsightedness that afflicts most people predicting the demise of physical media. Like most pieces predicting the imminent demise of DVD and other physical media on the basis of what happened to the music industry, it overlooks the fact people engage with books and movies/TV in a different way than they do with music. This applies to both the way people acquire and how they enjoy it.

In contrast to books and movies, which involve an investment of multiple hours, the primary unit of enjoyment for popular music is the individual song, most of which tend to be in the 3-5 minute range. Much of the record-buying public had put that thought aside for a while during the height of CD sales in the 80s and 90s, either because they were re-purchasing albums they already owned in another format or because they had no alternative to get the specific songs they wanted in the post-vinyl/cassette era. Whether people realized how much they were paying for so little that they really enjoyed because of the internet or that realization is what led them to the internet I can’t say for sure, but the bottom line is that the rise of the music download can be tied self-inflicted wounds on the part of the record industry at pretty much every key juncture. The failure of labels to offer a viable consumer alternative to the 45 enabled downloading to take hold among music lovers, and their draconian legal responses to downloading turned off a lot of people who might otherwise have been receptive to the ethical arguments against downloading.

Movies and books are a bit different, though both industries seem intent on fostering a few self-inflicted wounds of their own. The fact is that, while music can be easily enjoyed in the course of other activities, books and movies don't lend themselves so well to that kind of passive engagement. More so than questions of bandwidth and file sizes, that post-purchase element of consumer behavior is the factor that should make people think twice about drawing such parallels.

Those points aside, it's quite possible that downloading may assume a dominant place in the market for certain areas of publishing, mainly periodicals. The idea that books will become to the printed word what vinyl is to music, though, overlooks a central reason why people like to have books in their house. A rack of vinyl records may make you look hip and cool, but a well-filled bookcase makes you look smart.

A kindle is a nifty gadget, especially for reading magazines that I’m unlikely to ever read again, but it doesn’t do much for my living room and my wife doesn’t like when I leave it on the coffee table. On the other hand, my wife may think comic-books are a little silly , but she doesn’t object to me leaving my giant book about the history DC Comics out on the coffee table when we have company. At the end of the day, more people want to be seen as smart than hip, and if my teenage niece is any indication that’s not likely to change any time soon.